As I write this, early on a Tuesday afternoon, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up by about 800 points for the day. That’s a massive stock market gain in only a few hours. The Dow could soar even higher before the close of trading – or come crashing down like a poorly constructed Lego castle.*
This is not unusual with stock markets. They go up, they go down. Sometimes they spike quickly, and then come crashing down just as quickly. It’s the nature of the beast.
But in 2026? Let’s just say that the beast is having a serious bipolar episode.
Yesterday, the Dow bounced between a low of 45,057 and a high of 45,625 – a swing of 568 points in a single session. On March 27, the Dow fell by 738 points. On March 26, it fell 384 points. On March 25, it rose 115 points. It rose 24 points on March 24, rose 404 points on March 23, and declined 398 points on March 20.
For the year, the Dow is down by about 3.5%. Already in 2026 it has peaked at 50,500 and bottomed at 45,000 – a difference of 5,500 points, and it’s not even April yet. If you’re looking for the definition of a volatile, irrational stock market, start there.
And if you want to know why this is happening, start with a certain orange-haired old prick named Donald Trump. Ever since he and his lackeys decided to attack Iran – for reasons only Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu could possibly love – the stock markets have gone batshit.
Wall Street doesn’t like foreign wars involving the U.S. – especially when those wars threaten global oil supplies. Dead humans don’t particularly bother Wall Street. But a shortage of oil? Damn, that’s some scaryass shit.
The initial assault on Iran occurred on Saturday, Feb. 28. Since then, the Dow has lost more than 5% of its value. But that only tells part of the story. The other part, the really interesting part, is how much of the volatility is directly tied to Trump.
First, let’s note that Trump hates stock market sell-offs. He hates them almost as much as he hates people who don’t kiss his fat ass every minute of every day. When the stock markets crater, it goes against his BS narrative that everything is rosy when he’s in charge.
The sagging markets convinced Trump that it was time to fabricate a narrative about how he is negotiating with Iran to end the war, He tends to make these claims in rambling social media posts, usually in the middle of the night. When this happens, Wall Street suddenly rediscovers its mojo and the markets soar (like today).
But when those negotiations are exposed as bullshit (usually by Iran), the markets tank.
So Trump goes back to saying the war’s end is in sight – really, I’m serious this time! And the markets rise.
But then the bombing continues, and Iran says it has no interest in negotiating a deal, and the markets tank.
And then Trump offers more bullshit, and the markets rise.
And then Iran calls him out on his bullshit, and the markets tank.
And back and forth it goes.
This is not a new phenomenon, either. About a year ago, Trump imposed a bunch of tariffs on U.S. trading partners, and the markets tanked, because Wall Street hates tariffs, too.
When Trump learned just how much Wall Street hates tariffs, he backed off of those tariffs.
And Wall Street rose! Higher and higher!
But then Trump started barking about tariffs again.
And Wall Street wept.
But then Trump said…..
Oh, never mind.
*****
Here’s the main point: To put an ounce of stock in anything Trump says or does is the very definition of stupid. The guy lies about everything – and even if he didn’t, he has no clue what he’s doing in the first place. He has no strategy, no game plan. He just makes shit up as he goes along. He reacts viscerally, in the moment, with no aforethought, the same way toddlers react viscerally when they piss their diapers.
But sure as the world, the second Trump says something – anything, no matter how ridiculous – the Wall Street geniuses go jumping up and down like monkeys in a banana festival.
Is this the way our esteemed financial institutions are supposed to work? Oh, I doubt it. In fact, I know it.
*****
I have a bit of experience with this kind of thing.
I started covering the stock markets as a reporter for a national financial newspaper exactly 26 years ago last month. Our paper reached hundreds of thousands of readers, at least according to the subscriber stats, and developed a certain cache among the investor class. That gave us credibility, for what it’s worth.
I no longer write for that paper. But I still cover the stock markets for a financial website with similar credibility among investors.
For most of my 26 years covering the stock markets, I’ve had a certain amount of faith that there is a method to Wall Street’s madness. I’m not sure I still have that faith.
Traditionally, investors have based their trades on standard economic principles. They feel good during periods of economic and geopolitical stability. Apparently, they have felt good for a long time. The average return of the S&P 500 has been about 10% a year since the index launched in 1957.
There are exceptions, when investors forget the usual principles and take a deep dive into irrational exuberance. For example, the markets soared during the 1990s tech/internet boom. But then the dot-com bubble burst, and people lost a shit-ton of money. The same thing happened during the financial meltdown/Great Recession of 2007-09.
No matter the cycle, most of the stock-market action is driven by “smart money” investors – all those blue-chip brokerages and trading firms that deal in millions of shares every minute of every trading day. They’re the ones who push the markets up and down – not you or I, with our 78 shares of Mom & Pop Incorporated.
The smart money folks are also the ones who are supposed to bring rationality to the market. They’re supposed to base their decisions on financial fundamentals and objective economic data – and right now, those metrics are not trending in the right direction.
But none of that seems to matter in 2026. The only thing that seems to matter are the mad ravings of an orange-haired lunatic in the White House.
How the fuck did this happen?
Seriously — how?
Why are so many allegedly sophisticated traders basing their trillion-dollar decisions on 3rd-grade-level social media posts being vomited from the White House in the middle of the night?
When the U.S. president writes something like, “Progress in IRAN!! Expect a deal SOON with AMERICA on TOP!!!!” – all the supposedly smart Wall Street traders buy up stocks and send the markets soaring.
But when he comes back a day later, with something like, “We will CRUSH Iran with BEAUTIFUL BOMBS and ENDLESS DESTRUCTION!!!! – those same traders wet themselves, hit the “sell” button, and send markets tumbling.
This is not the way a sophisticated financial system is supposed to work. It’s not the way a sidewalk lemonade stand is supposed to work.
But in 2026, in America, when so many people are so easily conned, or just don’t bother paying attention, it’s what moves the markets.
It’s the wrong way to conduct business.
Or life.
Or anything else.
*The Dow closed up more than 1,100 points for the day, and the S&P 500 enjoyed its best session in nearly a year. All because a lying old man said something about Iran which may or may not be true, because he’s a lying old man. Brilliant…
Image: AI. My first instruction was to make the organ grinder look like Trump, but Google Gemini didn’t like that idea. So I just kept offering different suggestions, ever so subtly, until I got Trump anyway.
Vance Cariaga 